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The Department of Homeland Security’s Risk Assessment Methodology: Evolution Issues, and Options for Congress
Title: The Department of Homeland Security’s Risk Assessment Methodology: Evolution Issues, and Options for Congress
Date: February 2, 2007
Author: Todd Masse, Siobhan O’Neil, John Rollins
Institution: GAO
Bibliographic Entry: Todd Masse, Siobhan O’Neil, John Rollins. “The Department of Homeland Security’s Risk Assessment Methodology: Evolution Issues, and Options for Congress.” GAO. February 2, 2007. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/RL33858.pdf (Accessed January 30, 2008).
Electronic Link: http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/RL33858.pdf
Key Words: risk assessment methodology, Department of Homeland Security, DHS, grants
Summary of Key Points, Issues, Conclusions:
DHS has adopted a strategy of priorities driven by risk. However, while risk analysis is advanced in the insurance and financial sectors, it is relatively less developed for homeland security. This report overviews the evolution of risk assessment methodologies from the Department of Justice in FY 2002 to DHS in FY 2007. Risk assessment has evolved from a simplistic formula equating risk with population to a much more robust calculation of weighted threat, vulnerability, and consequence variables. However, regardless of the complexity of the risk assessment methodology, due to the inherent uncertainties associated with assessing risk in a dynamic counterterrorism context, some level of flexibility in managing risk may be necessary.
The report also presents several risk assessment and related grant program options for congressional consideration:
1. Status quo – linked areas of risk assessment and grant allocation
2. National impact assessment – returns on investment of grant money
3. Transparency enhancement – risk allocation methodology at state and local levels
4. Development of comprehensive and long-term strategy for managing, assessing, and mitigating risk
Discussions and possible approaches for achieving goals entail the final section.
Name of Researcher: Katie Stout
Institution: Integrative Center for Homeland Security, Texas A&M University
Date Posted: February 5, 2008