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The Economic Impact of Pandemic Influenza in the United States: Priorities for Intervention
Title: The Economic Impact of Pandemic Influenza in the United States: Priorities for Intervention
Date: September - October 1999
Authors: Martin Meltzer, Nancy Cox, and Keiji Fukoda
Bibliographic Entry: Meltzer, Martin, Nancy Cox, and Keiji Fukoda. (September - October 1999) “The Economic Impact of Pandemic Influenza in the United States: Priorities for Intervention." Emerging Infectious Disease. Vol. 5, No. 5. http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol9no10/03-0231.htm (accessed April 7, 2007).
Electronic Link: http://origin.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol5no5/pdf/meltzer.pdf
Key Words: pandemic influenza, economic costs, vaccine intervention
Summary of Key Issues, Points, Conclusions:
This article looks at the economic impact of a pandemic influenza in the United States and discusses possible vaccine-based interventions. The costs and benefits of these interventions are discussed in order to assist in the development of federal and state plans for pandemic flu. The article outlines several objectives "regarding the number of deaths, hospitalizations, outpatient visits, and those ill persons not seeking medical care in the next influenza pandemic; provides a cost estimated of health outcomes; and estimates the potential net value of possible vaccination strategies." A Monte Carlo simulation model is used to estimate the number of illnesses and deaths in the next pandemic.
The findings of this study determined approximate numbers of deaths in the United States to be from approximately 89,000 to 207,000 (in 1999) while the economic costs would be $71.3 billion to $166.5 billion. The net value of vaccinating the entire country would provide net savings. However, vaccinating patients who are 20 to 64 years old would produce higher net savings. Vaccinating patients who are not at high risk may result in a net loss.
The conclusions of this study find that the greatest net cost comes from deaths, and the most savings come from lowering morbidity. Policy makers must plan the vaccination priorities for a pandemic. The greatest number of deaths will be prevented by focusing first on high risk groups followed by those 65 and older with no preexisting condition to make them high risk. The greatest economic gains come from vaccinating those 0 to 64 years old regardless of risk. The epidemiology of the pandemic may change the overall net economic effects.
Name of Researcher: Aaron Martin
Institution: Texas A&M University
Date: April 7, 2007
Date Posted: July 18, 2007