Document Actions
The Flu and the Lifeboat - August 6, 2009 #206
By Dr Dave McIntyre, Director Integrative Center for Homeland Security, 06 Aug 2009
One of the surest ways to generate controversy is to play the lifeboat game. Assume there is not enough room for everyone in a lifeboat. Who gets to stay? The scenario is supposed to test and clarify our values, but discussions have been mostly about theories divorced from reality – until now. I will tell you more if you will give me Just a Minute for Homeland Security.
I’m Dave McIntyre, Director of the Integrative Center for Homeland Security at Texas A&M
Round 1 with the H1N1 flu is over. The virus has gone south for the Australian winter, and our experts are working feverishly, if you will pardon the pun, to use our summer to prepare for its inevitable return next fall. It is a curious disease, especially infectious but not especially lethal. So although it spreads very fast, and lots of people are going to get it, only a few people are going to die. The vast majority will be sick for a week and then get over it. That’s reassuring from a species perspective, but still frightening to individuals. So the experts are trying to walk a fine line, using science to make hard decisions without alarming the public.
For example, so many people have the flu or are going to get it, that the Centers for Disease Control and World Health Organization have decided to quit testing and reporting individual cases. So we may see a lot more people sick next winter, and a small spike in deaths, but we won’t be able to trace this to an individual strain like H1N1. Supposedly this lack of information will lead to less media hype, and less citizen concern over a situation we can’t change, at least until a new vaccine arrives. Do you think that less information will make us less afraid?
Experts are also trying to use science and logic to decide who gets the vaccine before there is enough for every body. Thus far, the virus seems to hit young people harder than old, so the CDC recommends that priority go to those 24 and younger. It is an interesting reversal from the past, when emphasis was on vaccinating the elderly who were presumably less resilient. And priority will go to those weakened by chronic disease, up to the age of 64. The older ill will get in line with those middle aged and in generally good health. Wonder how that will play in the media?
The experts are in a tough spot. Science and logic are driving them toward decisions that public values and beliefs may not support, just as debate over medical care is heating up. We may not like the life boat game, but we seem to be in it just the same.
This is Dave McIntyre, Director of the Integrative Center for Homeland Security at Texas A&M, inviting you to join us again next week on Just a Minute . . . for Homeland Security.