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'Thinking Clearly about Nukes III,' February 26, 2009, #183
Thinking Clearly about Nukes III
By Dr Dave McIntyre, Director Integrative Center for Homeland Security,26 Feb 2009
Recently we looked at the effects of a nuclear attack on an American city. This week we will consider what we can do to prepare. That’s if you will give me Just a Minute for Homeland Security.
I’m Dave McIntyre, Director of the Integrative Center for Homeland Security at Texas A&M.
We have already examined the devastation from a small nuclear weapon as described in the report, “Planning Guidance for Response to Nuclear Detonation” by the Homeland Security Council. [1] We talked about the mile wide blast, tornado of fire two miles across, and radiation released both immediately and later as fall out. Responders close in would themselves be injured or dead, and those from outside would be blocked by rubble that would take days or weeks to clear. But this destruction would be localized. People several miles away would hear, see and feel the attack, but would not be in immediate danger.
Those people can take actions to save themselves. If close in they should immediately flee the fires to come, moving away from the explosion and across the wind – to avoid the fallout that follows. Radioactive ash – looking like fine sand – will start to fall up to 20 miles away within an hour. Just staying inside for 7 hours – especially underground - will reduce exposure by 90 percent. Staying 2 ½ days will allow 99% of radioactivity to decay. And people can decontaminate themselves by washing, and by throwing away dirty clothes.
Authorities can save lives by providing guidance immediately – should citizens shelter or flee? And in what direction?
Responders and medical personnel can save lives by making difficult choices. Usually, life threatening injuries are treated first. With tens of thousands in that condition, saving the most lives requires a new priority – treating first the seriously injured most likely to recover.
Radiation will be a major issue. What is the precise risk of various degrees of exposure? Must everyone flee all exposure? Leaders will need to tell citizens and responders what do
We need to practice all these decisions and communications – now.
And we must face the question of who is in charge. Even if still alive, can any mayor coordinate the required response? Any governor? The military can provide communications, airlift and manpower, but not thousands of hospital beds, or experts to restore electricity or sewage. Who will plan for and oversee this huge response?
Interestingly, the State Department is building a team half again as big as FEMA to fly into foreign countries and help reestablish government and services after a tsunami or earthquake. Wonder why a similar team is not looking at how to help an American city with the worse disaster of a nuclear attack?
This is Dave McIntyre from the Integrative Center for Homeland Security at Texas A&M, inviting you to join us again next week on Just a Minute . . . for Homeland Security
[1] _____, “Planning Guidance for Response to a Nuclear Detonation,” Washington DC: Homeland Security Council, January 16, 2009. http://www.afrri.usuhs.mil/outreach/pdf/planning-guidance.pdf