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Transformational WMD Crises - July 30, 2009 #205
By Dr Dave McIntyre, Director Integrative Center for Homeland Security, 30 July 2009
Predicting the future is impossible. But when careful professionals follow current trends to see where they lead, the results can be enlightening. I will tell you more if you will give me Just a Minute for Homeland Security.
I’m Dave McIntyre, Director of the Integrative Center for Homeland Security at Texas A&M
The Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction at the National Defense University has just released a study of how current trends could radically alter our lives in the near future. They identified four possible security developments that could dramatically change our world – and for which we are dangerously unprepared.
The first is the collapse of efforts to discourage other nations from developing nuclear and biological weapons. The result could be a quick and intense arms race, changing the global balance of power, destabilizing the whole international system, and possibly leading to hugely destructive wars.
The second possible development is the collapse of a state that already has WMD, allowing radicals to make off with working nuclear or biological weapons in the confusion. If they had these weapons, our most radical enemies would use them.
The third plausible scenario, grounded in current capabilities, is the emergence of a biological terror campaign in which deadly diseases were unleashed in several cities at once. All our work on natural disasters would not prepare us for these rapidly unfolding intentional attacks.
The last quite possible development studied was the detonation of a nuclear weapon in a US city. The result would be massive destruction and hundreds of thousands of casualties, along with uncertainty concerning who attacked us and what to do in response.
These four scenarios share three characteristics. Every one is possible – some think likely – in the very near future, based on events in the world today. Every one would radically alter our lives, driving us to slash current domestic priorities and vastly increase security spending and domestic controls. And every one of these scenarios would require real responses – the deployment of troops, the creation of medical teams, the reorganization of government – for which we are completely unprepared today.
The authors of this report argue for improved preparations in three ways. First, much more focus on prevention including diplomacy, agreements, and other actions to prevent proliferation. Second, new defenses that can detect and stop the movement of WMD, and cause a user to pay an unacceptable price. And third, response capabilities that assure the US and allies can recover from attack.
This is a difficult report to read. The results are so horrible and so possible, that readers are tempted to move on to more pleasant issues. But the future is never improved by ignoring it.
This is Dave McIntyre, Director of the Integrative Center for Homeland Security at Texas A&M, inviting you to join us again next week on Just a Minute . . . for Homeland Security.