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"What You Need to Know about Hurricanes I" - June 4, 2009 #197
Hurricane season has returned with a gust of media stories highlighting what you need to know about storms. But there really is one fact about hurricanes that is more important than all the others. I will tell you more if you will give me Just a Minute for Homeland Security.
I’m Dave McIntyre, Director of the Integrative Center for Homeland Security at Texas A&M.
The most important thing you need to know about hurricanes is this: they are unpredictable. Hurricanes change constantly, and especially as they approach the coast. You cannot listen to the news, turn it off for hours, and assume that you still know what is about to happen.
Although long range forecasting has improved in recent years, hurricanes still change direction with no warning, and frequently just before landfall. Three quarters of a million people evacuated Brownsville, just to see Hurricane Dean turn south at the last moment. Hurricane Rita made a similar last minute turn away from Galveston and toward Port Arthur. Andrew made a circle in the Atlantic before striking Florida and then Louisiana. And Hurricane Ike threatened a direct hit on Corpus Christi before turning north to strike Galveston.
Hurricanes also change their wind strength in unpredictable ways. They may jump from Category 1 to 5, nearly twenty times as destructive, in a few hours. We don’t know why. But we do know that people can go to sleep expecting a weak storm and awaken to a strong one – too late to evacuate.
Storm surge is even less predictable, depending on the wind speed, the angle of the shore, the shape of the ocean floor, and many other factors. The surge from Katrina went more than a dozen miles inland. For Ike it was a 20 foot wall of water that actually caused most of the damage. Experts saw these coming only at the last minute.
These last minute changes can impact evacuation instructions. People in the zone need to listen for guidance, leaving neither too soon nor too late.
Finally, hurricanes can cause unexpected flooding, power outages and gasoline shortages hundreds of miles away from where they impact the coast, and evacuees can gobble up resources wherever they are sheltered. You need to think about planning now, not when a storm and guests are bearing down on your town.
The bottom line is this. Despite the wonders of modern weather forecasting, hurricanes are unpredictable. Pay close attention to reports, follow instructions early, and be ready to care for yourself and your family for several days – even if you live many miles inland.
This is Dave McIntyre, Director of the Integrative Center for Homeland Security at Texas A&M, inviting you to join us again next week, when we will focus on what it means to be prepared -- on Just a Minute . . . for Homeland Security.